Sunday, February 2, 2014

Crowd frenzy = Turnaround

 EMOTIONAL REACTIONS FROM SOCIETY --- especially when they reach frenzied levels --- is almost always disproportionate to the actual problem. I would even claim that the greater the popular frenzy, the lesser the actual problem.

In the early 1980s the biggest fear among people in the Western world was about Soviet communist annexation and bombing of the "free world". But the reality was that communism was crumbling and the physical threats were receding.

Islamic fundamentalism started in the 1970s and grew to frightening levels for about a quarter century but the world never paid attention. The 9/11 attack probably marked its peak. Islamism, in my view, started to flatten out since then and now it is actually receding. But the community at large is most frightened of Muslims now than ever before! I consider this as a sign that Islamic fundamentalism is on the wane and no longer needed to be frightened about.

Homophobia was rife throughout the world. It peaked, fell drastically, and is moving towards the other extreme -- it has become fashionable to to accept any sexual behavior that used to be considered abnormal earlier. So homophobia has turned the bend and is becoming a fashion of homophilia. Perhaps one day the pendulum could swing back and the crowd could become anti gay again.

Pedophilia was seldom a headline issue till a decade or two ago. Now it the biggest target of witchhunt. And Catholic Church is the favorite target because the Church is huge and institutionalized. It is already weakening due to spread of secularism. Going by the other examples I cited, I would expect that the pedophilia issue in Catholic Church has peaked and is receding.

(Illustration sourced from the Net)
In short, crowd frenzy is usually an indicator that the problem has passed its worst stage. We can compare these to stock market bubbles. The legendary banker JP Morgan is reputed to have sold entire his stock holdings in 1929 when a shoeshine boy gave him market advice, and thus escaped the October 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression that followed.

Crowd frenzy is a good rule of the thumb to start going in the opposite direction. If everyone seems obsessed about something, turn away from it. Easier said than done. We are social animals!

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